World PC Market
World PC production and consumption demand are steadily growing, with production capacity growth rate higher than consumption growth rate. In 2019, the world's PC production capacity increased by 8.4% year-on-year, with output and demand growing by 3.9% respectively. The average operating rate of facilities was 77.7%, a decrease of 3.4 percentage points from the previous year.
The growth of demand in Asia has driven a rapid increase in the world's PC production capacity, and the world's PC production center has shifted to countries in Northeast Asia, especially China. In 2019, Northeast Asia, North America, and Western Europe accounted for 85.5% of the world's total production capacity, 85.3% of output, and 80.2% of consumption. With the continuous increase of China's production capacity, the PC production capacity in Northeast Asia increased from 38.2% of the world's total production capacity in 2014 to 49.7% in 2019.
2018 The total international trade volume of PC reached 11.76 billion US dollars in the year, with a total trade volume of 3.94 million tons, an increase of 19.6% and 12.2% year-on-year, respectively. In terms of price, the average export price of PC worldwide in 2018 was $2986.0 per ton, a year-on-year increase of 6.9%. China, Mexico, and Hong Kong are the world's major importers of PC, accounting for approximately 44.4% of the world's total imports. South Korea, Thailand, and the United States are the main exporting countries, accounting for approximately 36.6% of the world's total exports;
Chinese PC market
Chinese PC production capacity is rapidly expanding. In 2019, PC production capacity increased significantly by 33.4% year-on-year, while output increased by 27.2% year-on-year. The supply-demand structure of PC in China is imbalanced, especially for high-performance products, which still require a large amount of imports every year, while low-end products will face the risk of oversupply.
As of the end of 2019, there were 11 Chinese PC production enterprises, mainly distributed in provinces and cities such as Shanghai, Shandong, and Zhejiang. With the steady increase in domestic demand, new or expanded facilities will be put into operation in various regions, and the newly added production capacity is no longer limited to the East and North China regions. There are investment plans in both Central and South China regions.
Against the backdrop of continuously increasing domestic supply, the import volume of polycarbonate in China remains high, maintaining a high degree of external dependence. In 2019, China imported 1.59 million tons of polycarbonate, an increase of 12.2% compared to 2018, with a significant increase in import volume; The export volume was 256000 tons, which was basically the same as the previous year. Net imports of polycarbonate amounted to 1.334 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 15.3%, with an external dependence of 60%. Against the background of COVID-19 epidemic, in the first half of 2020, China imported 750000 tons of polycarbonate, a slight increase over the same period last year, which shows that the gap between supply and demand is expanding, and there is a large space for import substitution in the future.
Table 1 Domestic PC Import and Export Situation from 2019 to 2020
2019() | (/) | 159 | 12.2% | 2422 | -24.52% | ||
25.6 | -1.27% | 2728 | -15.06% | ||||
20201-9() | / | 120.97 | 4.55% | 2192 | -11.60% | ||
18.04 | -7.31% | 2543 | -8.10% |
In 2019, the apparent consumption of PC in China increased by 20.5% year-on-year, and the self-sufficiency rate increased by 2.2 percentage points year-on-year. The consumption structure of PC in China is basically the same as that in the world, but the consumption proportion is different. The consumption proportion of PC in China in electronics/electrical and appliances/household goods is higher than that in the world, while it is lower than that in the fields of automobiles and films/sheets. The apparent consumption in the first three quarters of 2019 was 1.65 million tons, and the apparent consumption in the first three quarters of 2020 was 1.71 million tons, an increase of 3.6 percentage points compared to last year.
2020 During the first quarter and first half of the second quarter of the year, the PC market was mainly affected by global public health events and experienced a weak downward trend. By the end of April and the beginning of May, the upstream of PC had basically resumed production, downstream demand had increased, and the PC market gradually recovered. The price fell to 10800 yuan/ton at one point and gradually rebounded to 15000 yuan/ton. By the end of September, the price increased to 18000 yuan/ton. After the National Day holiday, the price generally increased by 1000 yuan/ton, and the price slightly increased compared to last year. With the stability of raw material prices, the price of polycarbonate may remain around 19000 yuan/ton within the year.
According to the production cost calculation model of Zhuochuang Information's polycarbonate, the current reference cost for polycarbonate is 15375 yuan/ton. Based on the current market price of polycarbonate, the corresponding profit margin can be inferred. At present, the domestic PC market is intertwined with factors such as high costs, profit margins, and poor supply flow, leading to price and profit fluctuations in polycarbonate. However, industry institutions estimate that the recent operation trend of domestic facilities is more stable, and the expected increase in industry construction is visible. The market terminal demand procurement atmosphere is cautious. Although the short-term industry environment is weak, with the end of the COVID-19, the economy will recover to prosperity in the next 2-3 years, and the expansion of raw material devices and cost reduction will enable polycarbonate to reduce material costs and improve profit margins. In addition, new applications of polycarbonate have emerged in China, and the usage of polycarbonate esters in this field will also increase. At the same time, the price and profit margin of polycarbonate esters in new application areas will be higher.
1 2020
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